Growing economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns and elevated building material costs kept builder sentiment in negative territory in April, despite a modest bump in confidence likely due to a slight retreat in mortgage interest rates in recent weeks.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 40 in April, edging up one point from March, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.
“The recent dip in mortgage rates may have pushed some buyers off the fence in March, helping builders with sales activity,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “At the same time, builders have expressed growing uncertainty over market conditions, as tariffs have increased price volatility for building materials at a time when the industry continues to grapple with labor shortages and a lack of buildable lots.”
“Policy uncertainty is having a negative impact on home builders, making it difficult for them to accurately price homes and make critical business decisions,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The April HMI data indicates that the tariff cost effect is already taking hold, with the majority of builders reporting cost increases on building materials due to tariffs.”
When asked about the impact of tariffs on their business, 60% of builders reported their suppliers have already increased or announced increases in material prices due to tariffs. On average, suppliers have increased their prices by 6.3% in response to announced, enacted, or expected tariffs. This means builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $10,900 per home.
The latest HMI survey also revealed that 29% of builders cut home prices in April, unchanged from March. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in April, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 61% in April, up from 59% in March.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate the traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index, where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose two points in April to a level of 45. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers increased one point to 25, while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell four points to 43.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell seven points in April to 47, the Midwest moved one point lower to 41, the South dropped three points to 39 and the West posted a two-point decline to 35. (Source)
